The EU agricultural outlook, published once a year, presents the outlook for major EU agricultural markets until 2035. It is based on a set of assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, the fixed agricultural and trade policy environment, and international market developments based on the latest OECD-FAO outlook.
These assumptions imply relatively smooth market developments when in reality, markets tend to be much more volatile. Therefore, the outlook is not a forecast. More precisely, the projections correspond to the average trends agricultural markets are expected to follow in a given macroeconomic environment, if policies were to remain unchanged.
About the report
The report presents the medium-term outlook for the EU's agricultural markets from now until 2035, based on the most plausible future macroeconomic environment, and assuming that the current policy framework remains unchanged.
The main drivers behind the outlook include climate change, consumer demand, and the evolving farming sector structure.
Agricultural productivity growth is challenged by pressures from climate change and impacts on key natural resources. On the other hand, increasing farm sizes have favoured productivity growth. This trend is likely to stay although at a slower pace than in the recent years.
Consumer concerns about the impact of their diets are expected to contribute to lower meat consumption. At the same time, the consumption of dairy products is due to stabilise, in line with changing habits and expanding novel uses of dairy products. However, consumption of some plant proteins could grow while others could record some decline as consumers are opting for alternatives.
The common agricultural policy (CAP) remains crucial in supporting farmers to:
- transition to more sustainable agricultural production systems,
- become more resilient and more competitive, and
- simultaneously fulfil their functions as food producers and stewards of natural resources and the land.
By doing so, farmers contribute to the food security of both the EU and the world more broadly.
The report is accompanied by analysis of a selected set of market uncertainties to measure the potential for variation in the results. Specific scenarios are also presented for climate change and adoption of soil management practices.
This Commission report is a joint effort between the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development and the Joint Research Centre, with the Directorate-General being responsible for the content.