Overview
The EU agricultural outlook, published annually, provides projections for major EU agricultural markets until 2035. This report results from a long-standing cooperation between the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development and the Joint Research Centre.
The projections are based on a set of assumptions drawn from the latest OECD-FAO outlook, including macroeconomic conditions, the agricultural and trade policy environment, and international market trends. These assumptions presuppose relatively smooth market developments, even though markets tend to be subject to volatility.
It is important to note that the outlook is not a forecast. Instead, the projections reflect average trends that agricultural markets are expected to follow in a given macroeconomic environment, assuming no changes to existing policies.
Latest issue
The Medium-term outlook report provides an overview of the medium-term prospects for major EU agricultural markets, income and environment until 2035.
Related information
Data visualisations from the European Commissions' Joint Research Centre
About the report
The report presents the medium-term outlook for the EU's agricultural markets until 2035, based on the most plausible future macroeconomic environment and the assumption that the current policy frameworks will remain unchanged.
The main drivers of the outlook include climate change, consumer demand, the availability of agricultural inputs and natural resources, consumer choices, and the evolving structure of the farming sector.
Climate change and its impacts on key natural resources pose significant challenges to agricultural productivity growth. Overall, EU agricultural production is expected to grow more slowly than in the past and may even decline for some commodities by 2035.
Consumer concerns about the impact of their diets are expected to contribute to a reduction in meat consumption, with a preference for poultry meat and plant-based proteins likely to increase. At the same time, the consumption of dairy products is expected to stabilise, reflecting changing habits and the expanding novel uses of dairy products.
Although EU agricultural production is expected to grow more slowly in the coming years, the EU is likely to remain a net exporter for several agricultural products, maintaining self-sufficiency rates above 100% for soft wheat, barley, meat, dairy products, olive oil, and wine.
As a result, the EU farming sector plays an important role in ensuring food security for both the EU and the global community.
The report is accompanied by analysis of a selected set of market uncertainties to measure the potential for variation in the results. The report also includes a what-if simulation of a stress-test to the EU feed supply chain following an adverse weather event. Additionally, the report presents a set of environmental indicators built around the baseline that shows that EU agriculture is improving with reductions in greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions, nitrogen surplus, and soil erosion.
