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Agriculture and rural development


A medium-term outlook on the prospects for agricultural markets and income.


The EU agricultural outlook, published once a year, presents the outlook for major EU agricultural markets until 2035. It is based on a set of assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, the fixed agricultural and trade policy environment, and international market developments based on the latest OECD-FAO outlook.

These assumptions imply relatively smooth market developments when in reality, markets tend to be much more volatile. Therefore, the outlook is not a forecast. More precisely, the projections correspond to the average trends agricultural markets are expected to follow in a given macroeconomic environment, if policies were to remain unchanged.

Latest issue

agricultural outlook report front cover
General publications29 January 2024
Report: EU agricultural outlook 2023-35

The Medium-term outlook report provides an overview of the medium-term prospects for major EU agricultural markets, income and environment until 2035.

Executive summary: EU agricultural outlook 2023-35

Related information

Data visualisations from the European Commissions' Joint Research Centre

Figures (Excel)

About the report

two farmers standing in a field with a tractor, a mound of soil and a seedling

The report presents the medium-term outlook for the EU's agricultural markets from now until 2035, based on the most plausible future macroeconomic environment, and assuming that the current policy framework remains unchanged.

The main drivers behind the outlook include climate change, consumer demand, and the evolving farming sector structure.

Agricultural productivity growth is challenged by pressures from climate change and impacts on key natural resources. On the other hand, increasing farm sizes have favoured productivity growth. This trend is likely to stay although at a slower pace than in the recent years.

Consumer concerns about the impact of their diets are expected to contribute to lower meat consumption. At the same time, the consumption of dairy products is due to stabilise, in line with changing habits and expanding novel uses of dairy products. However, consumption of some plant proteins could grow while others could record some decline as consumers are opting for alternatives.

The common agricultural policy (CAP) remains crucial in supporting farmers to:

  • transition to more sustainable agricultural production systems,
  • become more resilient and more competitive, and
  • simultaneously fulfil their functions as food producers and stewards of natural resources and the land.

By doing so, farmers contribute to the food security of both the EU and the world more broadly.

The report is accompanied by analysis of a selected set of market uncertainties to measure the potential for variation in the results. Specific scenarios are also presented for climate change and adoption of soil management practices.

This Commission report is a joint effort between the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development and the Joint Research Centre, with the Directorate-General being responsible for the content.



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Report: EU agricultural outlook 2022-32
18 JANUARY 2023
Report: EU agricultural outlook 2021-31
18 JANUARY 2023
Report: EU agricultural outlook 2020-30
11 AUGUST 2021
Report: EU agricultural outlook 2019-30
Report: EU agricultural outlook 2018-30
18 DECEMBER 2017
Report: EU agricultural outlook 2017-30
1 OCTOBER 2019
Report: EU agricultural outlook 2016-26
1 OCTOBER 2019
Report: EU agricultural outlook 2015-25
1 OCTOBER 2019
Report: EU agricultural outlook 2014-24
1 APRIL 2015
Impact of lower oil prices on the EU agricultural market outlook – 2014-24
1 OCTOBER 2019
Report: EU agricultural outlook 2013-23
1 OCTOBER 2019
Report: EU agricultural outlook 2012-22
1 OCTOBER 2019
Report: EU agricultural outlook 2011-21
1 OCTOBER 2019
Report: EU agricultural outlook 2010-20


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