Olive oil production is expected to increase while wine consumption is projected to decline over the outlook period. These are just a few of the projections for fruit and vegetables, wine and olive oil from the European Union agricultural outlook for 2019-30 report published on 10 December 2019 by the European Commission.
By 2030, the EU olive oil sector is expected to grow in production capacity. Production will increase by 1.1% per year on average, reaching 2.4 million tonnes in 2030 (compared to 2 million tonnes in 2019). Domestic consumption could grow ;in non-producing countries. In addition, strong demand in both traditional and new markets will favour an increase of exports.
As for the fruit and vegetable sector, the apple production area is expected to decrease, but could be compensated by increasing yields. This would result in a stable EU production at 12 million tonnes in 2030 (compared to 11.3 million tonnes in 2019). Peaches and nectarines are projected to face increasing competition from other summer fruits, with a further consumption drop. EU production is expected to stabilise at 4 million tonnes in 2030 (compared to 4.1 million tonnes in 2019). Both EU production of oranges and tomatoes are projected to remain stable over the outlook period, respectively at 6.2 million tonnes (compared to 6.1 million tonnes in 2019) and 7 million tonnes in 2030 (compared to 6.9 million tonnes in 2019). Consumer demand will increasingly shift from concentrates to fresh orange juice. As for tomatoes, the domestic and global demand of processed tomatoes is expected to rise.
A decline in wine production and domestic use, both for human consumption and for distillation, is expected over the outlook period. EU production is expected to decline to 155 million hl in 2030, from 156 million hl in 2019. EU consumption is projected to decrease from 25.3 l per capita in 2019 to 24.5 l per capita in 2030. Nonetheless, despite strong global competition, EU exports could continue to grow mainly thanks to geographical indications and sparkling wines.
The EU agricultural outlook report for 2019-30 contains all relevant market data, accompanied by an explanation of assumptions, and a description of the macroeconomic environment. The projections and scenarios described in the report will be discussed at the annual EU agricultural conference, taking place in Brussels on 10-11 December 2019.
- Publication date
- 10 December 2019
- Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development