Short-term outlook

Summer 2026 edition

The short-term prospects for EU agricultural markets in 2026 remain robust, despite the repercussions of the conflict in the Middle East which are adding to pre-existing challenges and risks, including weather-related ones, animal diseases and persistent trade tensions. These sources of uncertainty are rising input costs putting pressure on producer margins. Still, EU production is expected to increase for oilseeds, dairy, pigmeat and poultry. Cereal production is forecast to contract but remain close to the five-year average, while production in the ruminants, sugar and olive oil sectors is expected to decline.

Energy market and fertiliser affordability

Macroeconomic and energy market prospects for 2026 remain highly uncertain, with real GDP growth forecast at just +1.1%, inflation to rise to +3.1% driven by energy costs, and food prices expected to climb following the increasing input costs. In line with the European Commission’s Spring Economic Forecast, this short-term outlook assumes a progressive normalisation of energy markets, supported by a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the restoration of key maritime routes. In this context, producer margins remain under pressure, with fertiliser affordability dropping to levels observed in 2022. To address these concerns, the Commission’s Fertiliser Action Plan adopted in May 2026 aims to ease short-term cost pressures while bolstering long-term resilience, in addition to the dedicated temporary State Aid Framework.

Weather outlook and global geopolitical situation

The weather outlook forecasts generally favourable crop conditions for 2026 in the EU, but a strong El Niño event is expected to peak in autumn, with mixed agricultural impacts. Though the EU’s production may avoid major direct effects, the possible impacts are still very uncertain and global market disruptions could propagate through supply chains.

The combination of uncertainties from the global geopolitical situation, macroeconomic and energy prospects and weather conditions call for a careful monitoring of these factors and their possible implications for agricultural markets. Those risks were also reported as the most relevant for EU food supply in the Spring 2026 edition of the State of Food Security.

Data

EU balance sheets are available in Agri-food data portal, both in the form of tables and graphs. In addition, selected data for Member States are available and visualised in dataM.

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